Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

Poisson Distribution - Calculating score-line probabilities Before we can use Poisson to calculate the most likely score-line of a match, we need to calculate the average number of goals each team is likely to score in that match. This can be calculated by determining the “Attack Strength” and “Defence Strength” for each team and comparing them.

What is Expected Value? The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying the probability of winning by the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.

A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice — if you were to bet $10 on heads in a coin toss, and you were to receive $11 every time you got it right, the EV would be 0.5.